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I think the issue here is that a lot of people truly believe their book is simply so amazing and so inherently viral that the marketing will take care of itself. Rave reviews and spontaneous hype will drive the sales because of the quality of the story itself, surely! Why wouldn’t it?

Because that just isn’t what happens in real life. There are people whose debut work happens to get noticed by someone more well connected and that can kickstart an indie author’s career, but that’s not generally something you can arrange. Marketing and promotion are skills and there’s a reason there are college degrees based around them: it’s not easy to get people to buy stuff they weren’t aware of until your campaign! And while there are also self-taught people who are amazing at it, they are using skills not everyone has, and it’s unusual to be able to both write a good book and sell it effectively. At the very least, self-publishing a book and depending on its success without a backup plan for how you’re going to live is a recipe for disaster.

There’s no reason NOT to go for it if you think you have these skills or are willing to develop them! Nobody’s saying “you’re obviously going to fail if you try.” What we are saying is that most people do not make anywhere near enough money to keep their head above water, and you should not put yourself in a position where succeeding at this is your only plan. Folks who are thinking of doing something like this should think about the last five books they bought and why, and about whether they’ve personally ever just taken a chance to buy a book they’ve never heard of by an unknown author with 34 followers.